S&P notches first close above 7,300 as Iran hopes ease oil; NVDA beat priced in
A 5-minute read of yesterday's US session and today's catalysts — what to watch before pre-market opens at 21:30 HKT.
TL;DR
US stocks closed broadly higher Wednesday, with the S&P 500 notching its first close above 7,300 as Iran-deal hopes pulled energy prices lower and traders set up for Nvidia's print. After the bell, NVDA delivered a clean beat ($81.6B revenue, EPS $1.87) and a striking Q2 guide of $91B, well above the $85–87B Street. Stock reaction was muted (+1.9% AH) — high bar already priced in. 10Y at 4.40%+ remains the macro tension. Watch WMT before the open, plus jobless claims and Philly Fed at 08:30 ET (20:30 HKT).
US Session Recap — Wed 20 May
| Index | Close | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,300+ | +1.0% | First close above 7,300 |
| Dow Jones | — | +1.2% | Led by GS, BA, NKE |
| Nasdaq 100 | — | +1.2% | AI complex bid into NVDA |
| WTI Crude | ~$100 | lower | 3 supertankers exited Strait of Hormuz |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.40%+ | ↑ | Near YTD highs |
Top large-cap movers (regular session): GS +5.74%, NKE +4.17%, BA +3.34%, TJX +6% on earnings.
Spotlight — NVDA After-Hours
| Metric | Reported | Street | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 Revenue | $81.6B | ~$78–79B | Beat (+85% YoY) |
| Q1 EPS | $1.87 | $1.76 | Beat |
| Q2 FY27 Guide | $91.0B ±2% | $85–87B | Well above consensus |
| AH Reaction | +1.93% | — | Muted; high bar priced in |
Peers in AH: AMD +4.6%, AVGO +1.2%; MU -4.9%, TSM -1.1%, NXPI -1.3%. Read-through is favorable for GPU/accelerator names, weaker for memory and select foundry/analog. NVDA has fallen the session after its last three prints despite beats — watch for a fade if pre-market exuberance builds.
Macro & Fed
- Policy: Fed held at 3.50–3.75% at the April FOMC for a third meeting, but the 8–4 split was the most dissents since October 1992 — a meaningful crack in consensus. SEP still pencils in one cut for 2026.
- Rates: 10Y yields above 4.40%, near YTD highs. Sticky inflation and Iran-driven energy risk keep the long end pinned; this is the main pressure point on long-duration / high-multiple names.
- Today's US data (08:30 ET / 20:30 HKT): Initial Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. A hot claims print or weak Philly Fed could move rate-cut odds and the dollar.
Geopolitics & Global
- US–Iran (Month 3): Trump signaled a deal could come soon; three supertankers transited out of the Strait of Hormuz — risk premium in oil eased, but no breakthrough yet. Watch for headline whipsaw in energy and defense names.
- Energy: WTI sits around the $100 handle. Sustained >$100 oil is the single biggest threat to the US consumer thesis (XLY, restaurants, autos).
- Other: Venezuela oil reopening, Greenland diplomatic tensions, and ongoing Asia rebalancing remain background risks — none market-moving today, but worth tracking.
Earnings — What to Watch
| When | Ticker | What to look for |
|---|---|---|
| Today, BMO | WMT | Consumer health, guide, e-commerce. ~$172–175B rev, $0.65 EPS exp. |
| Tomorrow | TGT | Already cut profit outlook — watch for further guide-down. |
| Yesterday, BMO | HD | Housing/big-ticket demand read. |
| Yesterday, AMC | NVDA | Beat + strong guide (see above). |
Stocks Worth Watching
- Semis (NVDA, AMD, AVGO): NVDA's $91B guide effectively re-rates the AI demand curve higher. If NVDA fades on the headline, AMD and AVGO may absorb the bullish read-through more cleanly.
- Memory (MU): Weak AH on -4.9% reaction stands out — Nvidia's HBM mix commentary may have been cautious. Check the call transcript before reacting.
- Banks (GS, JPM): GS's +5.74% leadership without a single-name catalyst suggests rotation into financials as the curve stays steep at the long end.
- Defensives if oil stays bid: XLP, JNJ, WMT (post-print) — hedges if Iran headlines reverse and oil spikes again.