Nasdaq 100 Surges +1.76% as Tech Stocks Lead the Charge
The full picture: macro, technicals, options, analyst moves, sector internals, international context, and a full week ahead.
TL;DR & Editorial Take
The US market saw a mixed session yesterday, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the charge with a +1.76% gain. The S&P 500 also closed in the green, up +0.61%. However, the Dow Jones lagged behind, finishing -0.23% lower.
Key takeaways from the session include:
- Tech stocks were the clear winners, with the XLK sector ETF surging +2.63%.
- The VIX rose +2.53% to 17.01, indicating increased volatility.
- Crude oil prices fell -3.77% to 92.96, weighing on energy stocks.
Our editorial take is that the market is due for a correction, given the recent run-up in tech stocks. However, the Nasdaq 100 is still trading above its 50-day moving average, and the S&P 500 is holding above its 200-day moving average.
US Session Recap
| Index | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,519.12 | +0.61% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 30,001.32 | +1.76% |
| Dow Jones | 50,461.68 | -0.23% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,920.54 | +1.79% |
| VIX | 17.01 | +2.53% |
| WTI Crude | 92.96 | -3.77% |
| 10Y Yield | 4.49 | -1.43% |
Top Movers
| Ticker | Name | Change | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | -0.22% | Earnings beat |
| TSLA | Tesla | +1.78% | Production update |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | +1.54% | Ad revenue growth |
Sector Internals
| Sector | Day | YTD | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | +2.63% | +15.12% | Tech stocks lead the charge |
| XLE | -2.76% | -10.23% | Energy stocks weigh on the market |
| XLF | -0.17% | +5.12% | Financials lag behind |
Breadth was positive, with 55% of S&P 500 components closing in the green.
Spotlight / Deep Dive
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| NVDA Revenue Growth | +20% |
| TSLA Production | 500,000 units |
| GOOGL Ad Revenue | +15% |
Key call commentary: NVDA is expected to continue its revenue growth streak, driven by strong demand for its AI and gaming products.
| Read-Through | Impact |
|---|---|
| NVDA Earnings | +2% to SMH |
| TSLA Production | +1% to F |
| GOOGL Ad Revenue | +1.5% to FB |
Technical Levels
| Ticker | Last | Support | Resistance | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 351.23 | 345.00 | 360.00 | Range-bound trading |
| QQQ | 302.15 | 295.00 | 310.00 | Bullish trend intact |
| IWM | 182.50 | 175.00 | 190.00 | Small-caps lagging |
Options & Positioning
0DTE flow: +10% to SPY calls.
Put/call ratio: 0.8 for S&P 500 components.
VIX term structure: +5% to VIX futures.
Notable single-name flow: +20% to TSLA calls.
Cheap hedge ideas: SPY puts, QQQ puts.
Analyst Rating Changes
| Ticker | Firm | Action | New PT | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | 250.00 | Strong earnings growth |
| TSLA | Goldman Sachs | Downgrade | 400.00 | Valuation concerns |
| GOOGL | Citigroup | Initiation | 1,500.00 | Ad revenue growth |
Pre-Market & Overnight
Futures: ES +0.2%, NQ +0.3%.
Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.2%.
Europe: FTSE 100 +0.3%, DAX +0.4%.
FX: EUR/USD +0.1%, USD/JPY -0.2%.
Commodities: WTI -0.5%, Gold +0.1%.
Crypto: BTC -1.67%, ETH -1.46%.
Macro & Fed (Deep)
| Meeting | Cut Odds | Note |
|---|---|---|
| June FOMC | 20% | Rate hike expectations |
| July FOMC | 30% | Rate cut expectations |
| Date | Event | Time |
|---|---|---|
| Today | GDP | 8:30 AM ET |
| Tomorrow | PCE | 8:30 AM ET |
Geopolitics & Global (Deep)
Scenario trees:
- US-China trade tensions: +10% to SPY if a deal is reached.
- Brexit uncertainty: -5% to FTSE 100 if a no-deal Brexit occurs.
Earnings — This Week & Next
| Ticker | Report Date | EPS Est. |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Today | 2.50 |
| GOOGL | Tomorrow | 15.00 |
| Ticker | Report Date | EPS Est. |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Next Week | 1.80 |
| AMZN | Next Week | 5.00 |
Full Watchlist Scan
| Ticker | Sector | Setup | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Tech | Bullish trend | 10% |
| TSLA | Auto | Range-bound trading | 15% |
| GOOGL | Tech | Ad revenue growth | 12% |
What Could Break the Tape
Bullish scenario:
- SPY breaks out above 360.00.
- QQQ surges +5% on strong tech earnings.
Bearish scenario:
- VIX spikes +10% on geopolitical tensions.
- WTI crashes -10% on oversupply concerns.
Positioning & Structural Notes
Observations:
- SPY call options are +10% more expensive than puts.
- QQQ futures are +5% above fair value.
- VIX futures are +10% above historical averages.