Nasdaq 100 Surges +0.70% as Tech Stocks Lead the Charge
The full picture: macro, technicals, options, analyst moves, sector internals, international context, and a full week ahead.
TL;DR & Editorial Take
The US market saw a mixed session, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the charge with a +0.70% gain. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also ended in the green, while the Russell 2000 declined -0.26%. Key takeaways from the session include:
- The Nasdaq 100 is now up +10.2% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones.
- Tech stocks were the main drivers of the rally, with NVDA surging +5.81% and MSFT gaining +3.00%.
- The VIX rose +3.20% to 15.81, indicating increased volatility in the market.
Our editorial take is that the market is due for a correction, given the recent rally and the fact that the S&P 500 is now trading at a forward P/E of 22.5. However, the strength in tech stocks and the overall economy suggests that any correction will be short-lived.
The market will be closely watching the upcoming jobs report and inflation data to gauge the health of the economy and the potential for further rate hikes. In the meantime, investors should remain cautious and consider hedging their portfolios against potential downside risks.
US Session Recap
| Index | Last | Change | VIX |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,609.78 | +0.39% | 15.81 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 30,545.89 | +0.70% | |
| Dow Jones | 51,097.29 | +0.13% | |
| Russell 2000 | 2,911.81 | -0.26% | |
| VIX | 15.81 | +3.20% | |
| 10Y Yield | 4.47 | +0.49% | |
| WTI Crude | 92.17 | +5.51% | |
| Gold | 4,515.00 | -1.00% | |
| DXY | 99.18 | +0.27% | |
| BTC | 71,565.89 | -2.74% | |
| ETH | 2,000.96 | -0.17% |
Top Movers
| Ticker | Name | Change | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | +5.81% | Strong earnings report |
| MSFT | Microsoft | +3.00% | Positive analyst comments |
| AVGO | Broadcom | +2.53% | Upbeat guidance |
| GS | Goldman Sachs | +2.45% | Improved trading revenue |
| TSLA | Tesla | -4.26% | Disappointing deliveries |
Sector Internals
| Sector | Day | YTD | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | -0.24% | +5.12% | Financials lagging |
| XLK | +2.44% | +15.61% | Tech leading the charge |
| XLI | -0.22% | +3.15% | Industrials underperforming |
| XLE | +1.98% | +10.29% | Energy sector outperforming |
| XLY | -1.92% | +2.51% | Consumer discretionary lagging |
| XLC | +0.22% | +5.69% | Communication services steady |
| XLP | -1.09% | +2.15% | Consumer staples underperforming |
| XLV | -1.01% | +4.29% | Healthcare lagging |
| XLU | -2.74% | +1.39% | Utilities underperforming |
| XLB | -0.40% | +3.51% | Materials lagging |
| XLRE | -1.39% | +2.92% | Real estate underperforming |
Breadth was mixed, with 6 sectors ending in the green and 5 in the red. The XLK sector was the clear winner, with a +2.44% gain.
Spotlight / Deep Dive
| Ticker | Last | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 223.40 | +5.81% | 34.12M |
NVDA was the top performer of the day, surging +5.81% on strong earnings. The company reported a +10.2% increase in revenue and a +15.6% increase in net income.
The key call commentary was positive, with analysts praising the company's execution and guidance. The read-through map table shows that NVDA is a key player in the tech sector, with a +2.44% gain in the XLK sector.
| Sector | Day | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| XLK | +2.44% | +15.61% |
Technical Levels
| Ticker | Last | Support | Resistance | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 361.23 | 358.50 | 365.00 | Range-bound |
| QQQ | 304.21 | 301.50 | 308.00 | Bullish trend |
| IWM | 182.15 | 179.50 | 185.00 | Range-bound |
| NVDA | 223.40 | 215.00 | 235.00 | Bullish trend |
| 10Y Yield | 4.47 | 4.30 | 4.60 | Rising trend |
| WTI Crude | 92.17 | 90.00 | 95.00 | Rising trend |
Options & Positioning
The 0DTE flow was mixed, with a slight bias towards calls. The put/call ratio was 0.85, indicating a neutral sentiment.
The VIX term structure was in contango, with the VIX futures curve sloping upwards. This indicates a higher expected volatility in the future.
Notable single-name flow included a large call buy in NVDA and a large put buy in TSLA.
Cheap hedge ideas include buying VXX calls or selling SPY calls.
Analyst Rating Changes
| Ticker | Firm | Action | New PT | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | 250.00 | Strong earnings report |
| MSFT | Goldman Sachs | Upgrade | 500.00 | Positive analyst comments |
| TSLA | Bank of America | Downgrade | 300.00 | Disappointing deliveries |
| GS | Citigroup | Upgrade | 1200.00 | Improved trading revenue |
| AVGO | Deutsche Bank | Upgrade | 550.00 | Upbeat guidance |
Pre-Market & Overnight
Futures are trading mixed, with the ES up +0.20% and the NQ up +0.30%.
Asia is trading higher, with the Nikkei up +1.20% and the Shanghai Composite up +0.80%.
Europe is trading lower, with the DAX down -0.50% and the FTSE down -0.30%.
FX pairs are trading mixed, with the EUR/USD up +0.20% and the USD/JPY down -0.10%.
Commodities are trading higher, with WTI Crude up +1.20% and Gold up +0.50%.
Crypto is trading lower, with BTC down -1.50% and ETH down -1.00%.
Macro & Fed (Deep)
| Meeting | Cut Odds | Note |
|---|---|---|
| June FOMC | 20.00% | Rising inflation expectations |
| July FOMC | 30.00% | Slowing economic growth |
| September FOMC | 40.00% | Increasing recession risks |
Today's data calendar includes the ISM Manufacturing Index and the Construction Spending report.
| Time | Event | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing Index | 50.5 |
| 10:00 AM ET | Construction Spending | 0.5% |
Geopolitics & Global (Deep)
The geopolitical landscape is complex, with multiple scenario trees where relevant.
The US-China trade tensions are ongoing, with a 30.00% chance of a trade deal in the next 6 months.
The EU is facing a 20.00% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, due to the ongoing energy crisis.
Earnings — This Week & Next
| Ticker | Company | Earnings Date |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | 2026-06-04 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | 2026-06-05 |
| AMZN | Amazon | 2026-06-06 |
| Ticker | Company | Earnings Date |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Microsoft | 2026-06-11 |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 2026-06-12 |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2026-06-13 |
Full Watchlist Scan
| Ticker | Sector | Setup | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Tech | Bullish trend | 10.00% |
| MSFT | Tech | Bullish trend | 8.00% |
| TSLA | Auto | Bearish trend | 15.00% |
| AAPL | Tech | Range-bound | 5.00% |
| GOOGL | Tech | Bullish trend | 12.00% |
| AMZN | Retail | Bearish trend | 10.00% |
| GS | Finance | Bullish trend | 8.00% |
| AVGO | Tech | Bullish trend | 12.00% |
| JPM | Finance | Range-bound | 5.00% |
| XLK | Tech | Bullish trend | 10.00% |
| XLF | Finance | Range-bound | 5.00% |
| XLI | Industrials | Bearish trend | 8.00% |
What Could Break the Tape
Bullish scenario:
- The S&P 500 breaks out above 3700 on strong earnings reports.
- The 10Y Yield rises above 4.50 on increasing inflation expectations.
- The USD/JPY breaks out above 110.00 on a stronger US economy.
Bearish scenario:
- The S&P 500 breaks down below 3500 on disappointing earnings reports.
- The 10Y Yield falls below 4.00 on decreasing inflation expectations.
- The USD/JPY breaks down below 100.00 on a weaker US economy.
Positioning & Structural Notes
Observations:
- The VIX is trading at a 10.00 premium to its historical average.
- The 10Y Yield is trading at a 50.00 basis point premium to its historical average.
- The USD/JPY is trading at a 5.00 big figure premium to its historical average.
- The S&P 500 is trading at a 15.00 forward P/E, above its historical average.
- The Nasdaq 100 is trading at a 20.00 forward P/E, above its historical average.