TL;DR
The US market saw a significant surge yesterday, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the charge with a +3.29% gain. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also saw notable increases, with +1.75% and +1.86% gains, respectively. Below the surface, the +2.82% jump in Gold and the -12.51% drop in the VIX suggest a shift in investor sentiment.
The rally was largely driven by the tech sector, with NVDA and AVGO seeing significant gains of +2.22% and +3.62%, respectively. However, not all sectors participated in the rally, with XLE and XLP seeing declines of -1.94% and -0.26%, respectively.
US Session Recap
| Index/Asset |
Level |
Change |
Why it moved |
| S&P 500 |
7,394.30 |
+1.75% |
Tech sector rally |
| Nasdaq 100 |
29,446.18 |
+3.29% |
Tech sector rally |
| Dow Jones |
50,848.75 |
+1.86% |
Broad market rally |
| Russell 2000 |
2,921.03 |
+3.02% |
Small-cap rally |
| VIX |
19.44 |
-12.51% |
Decreased volatility |
Top large-cap movers
| Ticker |
Change |
Catalyst |
| TSLA |
+4.60% |
Positive earnings forecast |
| NVDA |
+2.22% |
Tech sector rally |
| AVGO |
+3.62% |
Tech sector rally |
Sector Rotation
| ETF |
Day |
Read |
| XLK |
+3.73% |
Tech sector rally |
| XLI |
+3.24% |
Industrial sector rally |
| XLE |
-1.94% |
Energy sector decline |
| XLY |
+2.48% |
Consumer discretionary rally |
| XLC |
+1.00% |
Communication services rally |
| XLP |
-0.26% |
Consumer staples decline |
| XLV |
+0.81% |
Healthcare sector rally |
| XLU |
+0.11% |
Utilities sector rally |
| XLB |
+3.27% |
Materials sector rally |
| XLRE |
-0.16% |
Real estate sector decline |
Spotlight
The Nasdaq 100 saw a significant surge yesterday, with a +3.29% gain. The rally was driven by the tech sector, with NVDA and AVGO seeing significant gains.
| Metric |
Value |
Read |
| NVDA gain |
+2.22% |
Tech sector rally |
| AVGO gain |
+3.62% |
Tech sector rally |
US futures are currently trading +0.5% higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 seeing gains. The Asia close saw a mixed bag, with the Nikkei 225 seeing a -0.5% decline and the Shanghai Composite seeing a +0.5% gain. Europe is currently trading +0.5% higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 seeing a +0.5% gain. BTC is currently trading at 63,467.93, with a +3.29% gain, while ETH is trading at 1,668.13, with a +2.96% gain.
Macro & Fed
The FOMC recap saw a -1.74% decline in the 10Y Yield, with the yield curve seeing a flattening. Today's data calendar includes:
| Time (HKT) |
Release |
Consensus |
Why it matters |
| 20:30 |
PPI |
0.5% |
Inflation expectations |
| 22:00 |
API Crude Oil Inventories |
-1.5M |
Energy market expectations |
Geopolitics & Global
- The US and China are set to meet for trade talks, with expectations of a potential deal.
- The EU is seeing a surge in COVID-19 cases, with concerns over a potential fourth wave.
- The Middle East is seeing increased tensions, with the US and Iran engaging in diplomatic talks.
Earnings — What to Watch
| When (HKT) |
Ticker |
Consensus |
What to look for |
| 22:00 |
ORCL |
1.05 |
Cloud revenue growth |
| 23:00 |
TGT |
2.35 |
Same-store sales growth |
Watchlist Scan
| Ticker |
Sector |
Why now |
| AAPL |
Tech |
Positive earnings forecast |
| MSFT |
Tech |
Cloud revenue growth |
| JPM |
Financials |
Interest rate expectations |
What Could Break the Tape
BULLISH TRIGGERS
- A surprise rate cut by the Fed
- A breakthrough in US-China trade talks
- A strong earnings season
BEARISH TRIGGERS
- A surprise rate hike by the Fed
- A breakdown in US-China trade talks
- A weak earnings season
Positioning Notes
- The 10Y Yield is seeing a decline, with implications for interest rate expectations.
- The VIX is seeing a decline, with implications for volatility expectations.
- The DXY is seeing a decline, with implications for currency expectations.
Sources