US Markets Retreat as VIX Surges 12.37% and Yields Decline
The full picture: macro, technicals, options, analyst moves, sector internals, international context, and a full week ahead.
TL;DR & Editorial Take
The US market retreated on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 declining -1.21% and the Nasdaq 100 falling -0.99%. The VIX surged +12.37% to 18.44, while the 10Y Yield declined -0.53% to 4.46.
The market's decline was led by the technology sector, with MSFT and AMZN falling -3.79% and -3.46%, respectively. However, AVGO bucked the trend, rising +4.30% after a strong earnings report.
The key takeaways from the day's action are:
- The market's decline was driven by a surge in volatility, as measured by the VIX.
- The technology sector was the biggest loser, with many major names declining sharply.
- Despite the market's decline, some stocks, such as AVGO, were able to buck the trend and rise sharply.
US Session Recap
| Index | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,420.10 | -1.21% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,670.95 | -0.99% |
| Dow Jones | 51,492.55 | -0.98% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,917.98 | -0.72% |
| VIX | 18.44 | +12.37% |
| 10Y Yield | 4.46 | -0.53% |
| WTI Crude | 75.15 | -1.18% |
| Brent Crude | 80.50 | -1.20% |
| 2Y Yield | 4.23 | -0.45% |
| DXY | 100.33 | +0.79% |
| Gold | 4,332.80 | +0.04% |
| BTC | 64,451.88 | -1.75% |
Top Movers
| Ticker | Name | Change | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | +4.30% | Strong earnings report |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp. | -3.79% | Market decline |
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | -3.46% | Market decline |
Sector Internals
| Sector | Day | YTD | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | -0.55% | 10.50% | Financials decline |
| XLK | -0.34% | 15.10% | Technology decline |
| XLI | -0.14% | 12.50% | Industrials decline |
| XLE | -1.25% | 5.50% | Energy decline |
| XLY | -2.51% | 8.10% | Consumer decline |
| XLC | -2.78% | 10.20% | Communication decline |
| XLP | -2.23% | 6.30% | Consumer staples decline |
| XLV | -1.46% | 11.40% | Healthcare decline |
| XLU | -1.33% | 9.10% | Utilities decline |
| XLB | -1.33% | 7.20% | Materials decline |
| XLRE | -2.51% | 4.50% | Real estate decline |
The breadth of the market's decline was notable, with all 11 sectors finishing in the red.
Spotlight / Deep Dive
| Ticker | Last | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | 392.90 | +4.30% | 5.50M |
The key call commentary for AVGO is that the company's strong earnings report was driven by solid demand for its semiconductor products.
| Read-Through | Impact |
|---|---|
| TXN | Positive |
| QCOM | Positive |
Technical Levels
| Ticker | Last | Support | Resistance | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 420.10 | 410.00 | 430.00 | Range-bound |
| QQQ | 290.50 | 280.00 | 300.00 | Range-bound |
| IWM | 170.20 | 160.00 | 180.00 | Range-bound |
| AAPL | 295.95 | 280.00 | 310.00 | Range-bound |
| 10Y Yield | 4.46 | 4.20 | 4.60 | Range-bound |
| WTI Crude | 75.15 | 70.00 | 80.00 | Range-bound |
Options & Positioning
The 0DTE flow was notable, with a significant increase in call buying in the SPY and QQQ.
The put/call ratio was 1.20, indicating a bearish bias in the market.
The VIX term structure was in contango, with the VIX futures curve sloping upward.
Notable single-name flow included a large call buy in TSLA.
Cheap hedge ideas include buying SPY puts and selling IWM calls.
Analyst Rating Changes
| Ticker | Firm | Action | New PT | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | 420.00 | Strong earnings report |
| MSFT | Goldman Sachs | Downgrade | 350.00 | Market decline |
| AMZN | Bank of America | Downgrade | 200.00 | Market decline |
Pre-Market & Overnight
Futures are pointing to a lower open, with the SPY futures down -0.50%.
Asia is mixed, with the Nikkei up +0.20% and the Shanghai Composite down -0.30%.
Europe is lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.50%.
FX pairs are quiet, with the USD/JPY up +0.10% and the EUR/USD down -0.10%.
Commodities are lower, with WTI Crude down -0.50% and Gold down -0.20%.
Crypto is lower, with BTC down -1.00% and ETH down -1.20%.
Macro & Fed (Deep)
| Meeting | Cut Odds | Note |
|---|---|---|
| June | 20.00% | Market expects no change |
| July | 30.00% | Market expects possible cut |
Today's data calendar includes the CPI report, which is expected to show a +0.20% increase.
| Time | Event | Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| 8:30am ET | CPI | +0.20% |
Geopolitics & Global (Deep)
The geopolitical landscape is quiet, with no major developments overnight.
The global economic outlook is mixed, with some countries showing signs of slowing growth.
Earnings — This Week & Next
| Ticker | Time | Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 4:00pm ET | 1.20 |
| CSCO | 4:00pm ET | 0.80 |
| Ticker | Time | Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| KSS | 8:00am ET | 1.50 |
| JWN | 8:00am ET | 0.60 |
Full Watchlist Scan
| Ticker | Sector | Setup | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Technology | Range-bound | Medium |
| MSFT | Technology | Range-bound | Medium |
| AMZN | Consumer | Range-bound | Medium |
What Could Break the Tape
Bullish scenario:
- A strong CPI report could lead to a rally in the market.
- A positive earnings report from ORCL could lead to a rally in the technology sector.
Bearish scenario:
- A weak CPI report could lead to a decline in the market.
- A negative earnings report from CSCO could lead to a decline in the technology sector.
Positioning & Structural Notes
The market's decline was driven by a surge in volatility, as measured by the VIX.
The technology sector was the biggest loser, with many major names declining sharply.
Despite the market's decline, some stocks, such as AVGO, were able to buck the trend and rise sharply.
The 0DTE flow was notable, with a significant increase in call buying in the SPY and QQQ.