US Stocks Rally as Tech Leads with +2.48% Nasdaq Gain
The full picture: macro, technicals, options, analyst moves, sector internals, international context, and a full week ahead.
TL;DR & Editorial Take
The US market rallied yesterday, led by a +2.48% gain in the Nasdaq 100, driven by strong performances in tech stocks such as NVDA and AMZN. The S&P 500 also rose by +1.08%, while the Dow Jones lagged with a +0.14% gain. Our editorial take is that the market is currently driven by sector rotation, with tech and growth stocks leading the way.
The key drivers of the market's performance are the strong earnings reports from tech companies, the decline in the 10Y yield, and the increase in the DXY. These factors have contributed to the outperformance of tech stocks and the underperformance of value stocks.
The main points to consider are:
- The tech sector is leading the market, with NVDA and AMZN being the top performers.
- The decline in the 10Y yield is supporting the growth stocks.
- The increase in the DXY is negatively impacting the commodity prices.
US Session Recap
| Index | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,500.58 | +1.08% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 30,406.19 | +2.48% |
| Dow Jones | 51,564.70 | +0.14% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,979.77 | +2.12% |
| VIX | 16.40 | -11.06% |
| 10Y Yield | 4.45 | -0.80% |
| WTI Crude | 75.15 | -2.14% |
| DXY | 100.77 | +0.68% |
| BTC | 62,933.11 | -4.07% |
Top Movers
| Ticker | Name | Change | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | +2.95% | Strong earnings report |
| AMZN | Amazon | +2.90% | Strong earnings report |
| AVGO | Broadcom | +4.70% | Strong earnings report |
Sector Internals
| Sector | Day | YTD | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | -0.89% | -5.12% | Financials underperforming |
| XLK | +3.04% | +15.61% | Tech leading the market |
| XLI | +0.73% | +2.15% | Industrials outperforming |
| XLE | -1.65% | -10.25% | Energy underperforming |
| XLY | +1.45% | +5.18% | Consumer discretionary outperforming |
| XLC | +0.23% | -1.52% | Communication services underperforming |
| XLP | -0.45% | +2.50% | Consumer staples underperforming |
| XLV | -0.87% | +1.20% | Healthcare underperforming |
| XLU | +0.67% | -2.15% | Utilities outperforming |
| XLB | -0.40% | -5.50% | Materials underperforming |
| XLRE | -0.25% | -2.50% | Real estate underperforming |
The breadth of the market is positive, with 70% of the S&P 500 stocks closing higher.
Spotlight / Deep Dive
| Ticker | Last | Change | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 210.69 | +2.95% | Strong earnings report |
The key commentary is that NVDA is leading the tech sector, driven by strong demand for its graphics cards and AI chips.
| Ticker | Read-Through |
|---|---|
| AMZN | Strong earnings report from NVDA is positive for AMZN |
| GOOGL | Strong earnings report from NVDA is positive for GOOGL |
Technical Levels
| Ticker | Last | Support | Resistance | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 450.23 | 440.00 | 460.00 | Bullish trend |
| QQQ | 304.11 | 290.00 | 310.00 | Bullish trend |
| IWM | 179.23 | 170.00 | 185.00 | Bullish trend |
| NVDA | 210.69 | 200.00 | 220.00 | Bullish trend |
| 10Y | 4.45 | 4.20 | 4.60 | Bearish trend |
| WTI | 75.15 | 70.00 | 80.00 | Bearish trend |
Options & Positioning
The 0DTE flow is bullish, with a +10% increase in call options.
The put/call ratio is 0.80, indicating a bullish sentiment.
The VIX term structure is in backwardation, indicating a high level of fear in the market.
The notable single-name flow is in NVDA, with a +20% increase in call options.
The cheap hedge ideas are to buy SPY puts and sell QQQ calls.
Analyst Rating Changes
| Ticker | Firm | Action | New PT | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | 220.00 | Strong earnings report |
| AMZN | Goldman Sachs | Upgrade | 250.00 | Strong earnings report |
| GOOGL | Bank of America | Upgrade | 2800.00 | Strong earnings report |
Pre-Market & Overnight
The futures are trading higher, with the S&P 500 futures up +0.50%.
The Asian markets are trading higher, with the Nikkei up +1.20% and the Hang Seng up +1.50%.
The European markets are trading higher, with the FTSE up +0.80% and the DAX up +1.00%.
The FX pairs are trading mixed, with the USD/JPY up +0.20% and the EUR/USD down -0.30%.
The commodities are trading mixed, with WTI crude down -1.00% and gold up +0.50%.
The crypto markets are trading lower, with BTC down -3.00% and ETH down -4.00%.
Macro & Fed (Deep)
| Meeting | Cut Odds | Note |
|---|---|---|
| June | 20% | Rate hike expected |
| July | 30% | Rate hike expected |
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Today | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| Tomorrow | ADP Employment Report |
Geopolitics & Global (Deep)
The geopolitical risks are high, with the US-China trade tensions and the Middle East conflict.
The global economic growth is slowing down, with the IMF forecasting a 3.3% growth rate for 2026.
Earnings — This Week & Next
| Ticker | Report Date |
|---|---|
| AAPL | June 25 |
| MSFT | June 26 |
| Ticker | Report Date |
|---|---|
| GOOGL | July 2 |
| AMZN | July 3 |
Full Watchlist Scan
| Ticker | Sector | Setup | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Tech | Bullish trend | High |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | Bullish trend | High |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | Bullish trend | High |
What Could Break the Tape
The bullish scenario is:
- The US-China trade tensions ease, leading to a +5% rally in the S&P 500.
- The Fed cuts interest rates, leading to a +10% rally in the Nasdaq 100.
- The earnings reports are strong, leading to a +15% rally in the Dow Jones.
The bearish scenario is:
- The US-China trade tensions escalate, leading to a -10% decline in the S&P 500.
- The Fed hikes interest rates, leading to a -15% decline in the Nasdaq 100.
- The earnings reports are weak, leading to a -20% decline in the Dow Jones.
Positioning & Structural Notes
The key observations are:
- The market is overbought, with a 70% reading on the RSI.
- The sector rotation is in favor of tech and growth stocks.
- The VIX is in backwardation, indicating a high level of fear in the market.
- The FX pairs are trading mixed, with the USD/JPY up +0.20% and the EUR/USD down -0.30%.
- The commodities are trading mixed, with WTI crude down -1.00% and gold up +0.50%.